Outright bets are still one of the most popular markets on online sportsbooks – relative to their availability, of course. We’ve already written a basic guide to outright bets in football. Make sure to read it if you need an introduction because this post is dedicated to strategies for outright betting. Specifically, we’ll try to answer these questions:
Is it possible to find betting value in outright bets?
How do we win outright bets consistently?
So strap in as we look into season-wide betting predictions from the standpoint of sports betting strategy.
Outright Betting Value
If you’re serious about soccer betting, the question of value should always be in the back of your mind. In fact, it should be your primary concern when deciding which bets to place. With that in mind, we’ll assume you already have a decent grasp on what betting value is and how to find it.
On to the topic at hand. Surprisingly enough, outright soccer bets can be an incredible source of value. In short, it’s because of their extreme volatility. Moreover, it takes a lot of time to settle a market that covers an entire season. A lot may change in that timeframe and outright betting odds often fluctuate wildly.
So why does volatility matter? Calculating betting value comes down to beating the bookies at their own game. You have to be able to see the probability of a certain outcome better than the one setting the prices. However, predicting an entire season is incomparably more complex than a single match. There are just so many variables to consider.
Moreover, sports are, by their very nature, not entirely predictable. That’s why we see upsets and surprises all the time. Of course, even the bookies themselves expect the unexpected in a way and always leave room for deviation from the probabilities they calculate. However, if unexpected things can happen during a single football match, just think of their effect on a whole season. These small surprises pop up, compound, and may snowball into something no one initially saw coming. Just look at Leicester’s famous 2015-16 Premier League season as a perfect example.
This means that a bookie is more likely to miscalculate the odds for a long-haul bet. This is exactly where value can be found.
Needless to say, unpredictability in outright football betting is a double-edged sword. If top online bookmakers have issues correctly pricing outrights, don’t think it will be any easier for you.
Volatility means that the price/odds of your bet can change immensely and rapidly. This means that your attempt to outwit the bookies can end up blowing up in your face. You could end up with a negative value. In other words, you can easily make the mistake of overestimating the probability of something happening.
It’s important to remember that the price of an outright wager can go down as well as up. Keep this in mind as we discuss exchanges further down.
Outright Betting on Exchanges
Now that we have a broad understanding of how value in outright bets works, let’s get down to a way to use it.
Since we’re talking about advanced sports betting strategies, we would be remiss to not start with Exchanges. They’re the go-to sites for people who want to earn money betting online, after all.
If you’re trying to extract value from outrights, an exchange has two distinct advantages:
You’re more likely to find value betting against other players rather than bookmakers.
You can lay and back bets at one price, then sell them off with another one. Guaranteed profits if you got the initial prediction right!
This second bet is the key to introducing some safety to a market as volatile as this. The idea is quite simple.
You first back a certain outright bet – let’s say for a Top 3 Finish. The season kicks off and the team has a better start than expected. The odds are shorter than they once were. And the better the team performs, the shorter they become. At this point, you can lay the exact same bet, wagering against them ending up in the Top 3. You then win no matter how the season ends. Neat, huh?
If you want to achieve a similar thing with a fixed-odds bookmaker, it’s still possible. Simply wait for the odds to shorten and then cash out, earning a profit in the process. Not all bookies allow for cashing out outright bets, though, so be careful.
Other Outright Betting Tips
Before we end this outright betting strategy guide, here are some miscellaneous tips to round things off.
When using an exchange to get profits from outright betting, one advantage is that you have plenty of time. For some types of bets, odds drift quickly and you need to react instantly to get the most out of them. Outright odds drift on a week-to-week basis, giving you plenty of time to consider your options.
Bet hedging is your best friend. Figure out other ways in which betting against yourself can be beneficial. Wagering on two or three teams per table can often account for many unexpected outcomes.
Keep a close eye on odds drifting. Not just for the teams you backed, either. Keep tabs on how all teams across multiple markets are performing to gain insight into how the season is going.
Keep in mind that these strategies can be considered arbitrage. Especially if you combine hedging and cashing out at fixed odds sportsbooks. Some bookies don’t look too favourably on arbitrage and may suspend your account.
Source of the article